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Sunday, February 14, 2010

Early Polls: good incentive to get working!

There is a widely referenced Franklin & Marshall College (F&MC) Poll (not a poll of college Students, but the former Keystone Poll) That casts a gloomy outlook for Senator Specter.

Read it for yourself, and read an article in the Pike County Press that paints an even rosier picture for Republican challenger, Pat Toomey. As a comment to that article, I wrote:
"Certain polls may be biased, but the written analysis is always biased. This one is particularly troubling. When asked about Toomey approximately 3/4 of respondents “Don’t Know” Toomey or are “Undecided” about Toomey. The poll preference is a reflection of anti-incumbent sentiment, not pro-Toomey excitement."

"It is long way from February to November, but my guess is the more that Toomey is known, the more his “unfavorable” numbers will climb."

There is also a criticism of the poll's small numbers and differentiation of "likely voters" and "registered voters" at this point in an election by FiveThirtyEight.

This is what I learn from the poll:
  1. Incumbents have an uphill battle this year.
  2. There is a motivated Republican base that will support anyone with an (R) after their name. (Remember, Specter was endorsed by those left-wing-nuts George W Bush, Rick Santorum, and even Pat Toomey(!) last time around.)
I'd encourage everyone to look at the candidates and what they will do in the Senate, and the consequences of electing one of these guys. If Pennsylvanians do that, I am sure that Pat Toomey's numbers will not look so rosy.

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